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Monday, October 7, 2013

Government Shutdown Puts Seats of Three Michigan Congressional Republican Representatives at Grave Risk

Gov't Shutdown Puts Seats of Three Michigan Congressional Republican Representatives at Risk
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The Government Shutdown will impact Republicans chances to retain the U.S. House. Especially if such hopes are depends on three Michigan Congressional Representatives ability to retain their respective seats.

Information released from Public Policy Polling (PPP) cites the on-going government shutdown have negatively effected Republicans chances of holding onto seats in Michigan Congressional Districts MI-01 held by Dan Benishek (R), MI-07 represented by Tim Walberg (R) and MI-11 retained by Kerry Bentivolio (R).

Two of the Congressional seats MI-01 and MI-11 now held by Republicans Benishek and Bentivolio were previously held by Democrats in the last three years, making the spots viable to a political party switch if public opinion continue to poll unfavorably about the U.S. Government Shutdown. 

"Surveys....found that at least 17 districts that are currently held by Republicans could swing in next year's elections. 
Democrats need to swing 17 seats to regain control of the House, the Business Insider cited on October 6th.
"Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win control of the House," pollster Jim Williams wrote in a memo along with the results. "These poll results make clear that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be well within reach."
In 2010 former MI-01 Congressman Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), then playing a central role in the health reform fight as the leader of anti-abortion Democrats, announced that he will not run for reelection allowing for Rep. Benishek and Republicans to gain the seat. It is unknown if Stupak now since the Affordable Healthcare Act exchanges which opened on October 1, 2013, would consider a candidacy to unseat Benishek and regain his former seat.

Stupak, a speculated Democratic candidate for Michigan Governor, announced in May 2013 he would back former Congressman Mark Schuaer candidacy to oust first term Governor Rick Snyder (R) from office.

Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R) seat was held briefly by former Rep. David Curson (D), following a special election from November 13, 2012 - January 3, 2013. Curson filled out the term of former Congressman Thaddeus McCotter's (R) after a faux primary election petitions signature scandal forced McCotter to resign. It is unknown if former Rep. Curson would consider waging another campaign to take on Rep. Bentivolio first-term voting record in Congress thus far.

In MI-07 Rep. Walberg (R) is facing a uphill battle to retain his seat against the former Michigan House Representative Pam Byrnes. Byrnes, a Chelsea Democrat, served six years in the state House of Representatives before being forced out by term limits, losing the 2010 Democratic primary for a state Senate seat now held by Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor).
“Washington is broken and Tim Walberg is part of the problem,” Byrnes said in a July 2013 interview to the Detroit Free Press. “He puts special interests and corporations ahead of middle-class Michigan families.”
Eric Brennan, political commentator for MLive and owner of Michigan cited in a October 6, 2013 blog post the seats of Republican Representatives Walberg (R), Benishek (R) and first-term Congressman 
are viable for takeover based on statistical data.
"Actually, according to this latest PPP poll, the answer is no. Kerry (Bentivolio) is the most hated representative in Congress. Dan Benishek, hated by his Democratic constituents and loathed by the Tea Party is number two. Tim Walberg's district was polled, too, and people also dislike him intensely," Brennan wrote.
The Public Policy Poll found that voters in Beishek district oppose the U.S. Government shutdown 64-29%, Bentivolio area 64-38% and Walberg district 58-36%. Democratic would need to pick up a net gain of 17 seats to take control of the U.S. Congress.

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