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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Ahead of Michigan's State of the State review, polling propaganda rears an ugly head

Photo Credit - trinity.edu
Independent Underground News & Talk - Op/Ed

At 7:00 PM ET Michiganders fall and wide of the mitten --lower peninsula-- and bunny --upper peninsula-- will listen to Governor Rick Snyder give his State of the State speech. 


Many actions taken by Governor Snyder 2012 has left a majority of State residents baffled and confused for who or what they voted for to partake Michigan's Chief Executive Officer role on November 8, 2010.

Governor Snyder in the past year signed Right to Work Legislation, allowed for a marketing campaign used to promote tourism in the State --Pure Michigan-- to promote his Right to Work law in the Wall Street Journal, along with raising taxes on the backs of Middle and Lower class residents in our beloved state. In light of these actions, some might wonder what is the State of Governor Snyder's popularity among the voting class.

This spells -- "What a perfect time to craft a new poll", as a measure of this important test.

The Detroit Free Press on January 16, 2013, less than 24 hours prior to Governor Snyder's highly anticipated and controversial State of the State speech, a new poll as "magically" appeared, stating 50% of Michigan resident support the Governor.


The data gathered by "right-wing" polling organization Mitchell Research and Communications statesGovernor Snyder was not "damaged" in the least with voters by signing "Right to Work. If so, we wonder what happened this day in Lansing? Why were over 12,000 Michigan residents on-the-ground and in Lansing city streets gathered in protest and why were plenty of State Police Officers ordered to keep guard of Michigan Governmental buildings.

kayla9170's Michigan Right to Work Protest 12-12 IUNews album on Photobucket

It appears these voters probably wouldn't give the Governor such high flowing marks of greatest, ever. The above pictures, taken at during Lansing, Michigan Right to Work protest on December 8th, when State Residents were pepper sprayed for using a First Amendment Right to Peacefully Assemble and express individual grievances with the pending legislation.

Yet, according to Mitchell Research and Communications, this moment in Michigan's History has all been forgotten and quickly forgiven.

From the Detroit Free Press Article - January 16, 2013:

"The Mitchell poll shows Snyder with a 50% approval rating, up 3 percentage points from a poll Mitchell took in December. It also shows 50% support for the controversial right-to-work legislation Snyder signed after it was passed by the Legislature in December. 
"A month has gone by, including the holidays," said Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research and Communications. Michigan voters have "moved a month away now from this kind of seismic change and have put it more in perspective." 
Mitchell said that although Snyder's favorable ratings improved 3 percentage points, his disapproval numbers also increased 8 percentage points."
Statistics was not a favored class in Undergrad or Graduate education yet, the lessons taught while wondering if one could pass this course twice, are very important. 

Specifically, in the case of Mitchell Research and Communications dramatic improvement of Governor Snyder's approval ratings in less than one month, reasonable residents of Michigan should question the validity of this poll. Or better yet, its' timing.

Any poll can be skewed to converge data to meet a desired result -- the first rule of Statistics and polling data. Noting such, one should research WHO is behind data gathered in the poll, WHAT was the purpose of taking such poll, WHY the firm decided to take a poll and WHERE was the poll responses gathered from.

Unfortunately, many of these questions are unanswered by The Detroit Free Press article. Yes, numbers are given, quotes were added to this piece, but the "meat and bones" of the statistical data is missing. With that, as a good Statistics Professor state, view this poll as a out liner.

From the Public Policy Polling Organization data gathered during the week of December 18, 2012:

Q6 - Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
Favorable........................................................ 13%
Unfavorable .................................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 73%

Q7 - If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Virg
Bernero, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder .................................................... 38%
Virg Bernero.................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q8 -  If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Gary
Peters, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder .................................................... 39%
Gary Peters..................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q9 - If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark
Schauer, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder .................................................... 39%
Mark Schauer ................................................. 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q10 - If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat
Gretchen Whitmer, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder .................................................... 38%
Gretchen Whitmer........................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q11 - Do you support or oppose the right-to-work
legislation passed in Michigan this week?
Support ........................................................... 41%
Oppose ........................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q12 - If there was a referendum on the right-to-work
law, would you vote ‘yes’ to approve the law or
‘no’ to reject it?
Yes.................................................................. 40%
No ................................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%   

Basically the PPP data supports Governor Snyder is in trouble, at least for the immediate future, after signing Right-To-Work Legislation. 

Once the impact of this law takes full force in April 2013, the Governor's approval numbers could take more of a nosedive into the abysmal basement of tainted political goods category. To confuse the masses with propaganda, Republican polling firm Mitchell Research needed to present a "new" poll, and required a well-read resource to do it -- an article in the Detroit News.

Here's a suggestion, don't believe the hype.

Take this poll by Mitchell Research and the questionable timing by Mitchell Research for what it is. An attempt to save whatever could be remaining of Rick Snyder chances for re-election as Michigan Governor in the 2014 elections.

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