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Monday, February 14, 2011

Oops! The Obama Administration revise previous rosy figures on jobless rate projection

President Barack Obama confers with Federal Re...Image via Wikipedia
President Obama 2012 Federal budget
project jobless rate will increase in 2011,
similar to Federal Reserve Chief Ben
Bernanke statements on February 4th.

In a surprise change of course, but highly expected if one was to look at the data provided by a number of top economists, the Obama Administration in its proposed budget for fiscal 2012 has forecasted slower growth and higher unemployment for the next two years.  This is the first acknowledgment from any official and/or statement from the Obama White House, that the economy continues to suffer.

In previous budgets, the administration had projected rosy outcomes of robust growth and a lower unemployment rate for 2011 and 2012.  

These mis-projected outcomes gave many in the nation an impression of a improved economic expansion, an misconception that long-term unemployment -particularly the 99ers- was the fault of jobless individuals not wanting to seek work. 

False projected forecasts probably colored the administration steadfastness to extend tax revenue to wealthiest Americans with Obama's Tax Cuts in December 17, 2010, as the best way to generate employment opportunities in this economy.  

But the real ‘devil was in the details’ and, in its latest spending plan the White House revised those previous forecasts.

Obama administration now projects a growth rate of 2.7 percent this year, more than a full percentage point lower than its estimate in last year's budget, when it predicted 3.8 percent growth. For 2012, the administration forecasts 3.6 percent growth, much lower than its previous estimate of 4.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reflects the grim projections for the next year. Additionally, the disappointing job growth statistics give confirmation on what a number of long-term unemployment advocates been stating on various media sites since 99ers were exhausted from all forms of supplemental jobless payment assistance in April 2010; which is the employment market is not improving fast enough to find a decent job.

This year, the White House estimates that 9.3 percent of workers will be jobless. Last summer, in its midyear budget update, the administration forecast a 9.0 percent unemployment rate. 

In 2012 when President Obama runs for reelection, his administration forecasts another rosy figure, that has yet to prove it can be meet -8.6 percent unemployment- a half-percentage point increase from last summer's projection of 8.1 percent. The White House also raised its projection for the unemployment rate in 2013.

During a presidential election year, stretching to data ranging back from 1948 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nations’ unemployment rate has never averaged above 8 percent.


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