End Dates of Extended Unemployment; in Contrast to Jobless Claims Increase

DAYTON, OH - OCTOBER 30:  Unemployed people lo...Image by Getty Images via @daylife




A recent increase in new claims for unemployment to 462,000, is dampening hopes of a happier US jobs outlook.

"The gain put an end to two straight declines and reinforced that the labor market recovery is not going to come about quickly," Andrew Gledhill of Moody's Analytics stated on Thursday. 

Claims increased by 13,000 up to 462,000, the second increase in two months, from last week's revised 449,000 for the week ended Oct. 9, the Labor Department reported Thursday. 

The figures have hovered around 450,000 for most of the year, and hiring hasn't picked up enough pace to make a dent in the 9.6 percent unemployment rate

For the unemployment rate to decrease, the economy needs jobless claims to drop into the low 400,000s or high 300,000s, to reflect stronger job growth in the private sector and propel the recovery. This means that 50,000 to 70,000 a month would need to be hired within the nationwide job market, to make a decent dip in the unemployment rate.

The four-week moving average, which recite the volatility of the weekly number and provides a better gauge of the employment situation; rose by 2,250 to 459,000.

In contrast, the total number of people continuing to receive unemployment insurance fell by 112,000 in the week ended October 2, to 4.4 million, the lowest since November 2008.

Those receiving extended benefits — up to 99 weeks in some states — who have exhausted their traditional benefits, decreased by about 340,000 to 4.8 million in the week ended Sept. 25, the latest data available. 

The recession, starting in 2007 -has left the US with a long-term unemployment rate – a measure of those without work for more than six months – of 4.5 percent, almost double that of the 1980s and 1990s downturns.

On September 30, S.3706-"The Americans Want to Work Act" bill -which would have extended up to 20 weeks of benefits to the 99ers - was blocked from an up or down vote on the Senate floor by Senator George LeMieux (R-FL). LeMieux cited concerns on future debt ratios, for his reasoning in blocking the bill.

Current unemployed benefits claimants under the 99 weeks, receiving benefits from H.R.-4213, which President Barack Obama, signed into law on July 22, will be exhausted of their supplemental income payments on November 30. Current claimants will not be allowed to receive continuing benefits from their current Tiers I-V or, move onto the next Tier of extended payments.

The private sector added 64,000 jobs in September, while overall the economy lost 95,000, as the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent, according to the Labor Department's report on Oct. 8. 
This latest rise in benefit claims comes only a couple of weeks after the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned that long term unemployment could be a reality for many Americans.

Meanwhile the stock market is reacting to the uncertainly in the unemployment rate, across the country. U.S. stock-index futures erased gains after initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased and wholesale costs rose at a pace that suggests limited demand is restraining inflation, this afternoon.
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